From time to time, I have been known to get all excited
trying to explain to my 3-year old that he is living in an amazing time. Self-driving cars, hoverboards, home
automation, robot assistants… the list of amazing changes goes on and on. He, in
turn, has been known to give me the “leave me the @$%#$ alone” look while he
gets back to being amazed at the number of ABCD songs on YouTube.
Apparently, both my son and I are wrong to be amazed.
Atleast this is what I learnt when I read reviews of a new book titled “The
rise and fall of American growth” by Robert Gordon. His
TED talk argues that the pace of technological innovation in the last 50
years is far lower than the period in the first half of the 20th
century. Unlimited ABCD is all nice, but
from an economic growth perspective, apparently not as big a deal as indoor
plumbing (my 3-year old just asked me to use said indoor plumbing to evict
myself from the house when I pointed out to him that he is doing nothing of
economic value to society).
I am no economist.
But I do know a little something about batteries. And I have been known to say stuff like
“there is nothing new in batteries” every time a paper comes out claiming a
breakthrough. I was mostly right for a
decade. Over the last 2 years, I have
stopped saying that and have gotten
to be amazed at the changes in the battery world.
No. No. I’m not
talking about the press
releases claiming breakthrough.
Those are still not worth the bytes they are written on. I’m talking about real changes, like the
dropping prices for Li-ion batteries.
Or the fact that I have stopped counting the number of EVs I
see in my (rather long) daily commute.
From Nissan’s to BMW’s to Merc’s to Tesla’s, they are pretty much part
of the landscape. Granted, I do live in
a bubble (the Northern CA area is not exactly representative of the world-at-large),
but it is fascinating to see the penetration of these cars.
But as a low-paid National Lab scientist with a long
commute, I have been unable to make the jump.
Either these cars had very little range (Berkeley, for all its
greenness, does not excel at providing charging) or cost too much. And gushing over a car at the dealership does
not lead to a price reduction. Quite the
opposite!
But prepare to be amazed even more.
Chevy recently announced the 200 mile Chevy Bolt (not the
same as the Volt. They really should
start calling the car “Chevy Bolt: with a B not a V”). Available sometime next year, it will be a small
to mid -sized 5 passenger crossover with reasonable trunk space. And Tesla is said to be ready to announce the
Model 3, another 200 mile “less frills” car for the rest of us.
Both the Bolt and the Model 3 are going to be in the mid to
high $30k range. With the tax rebates,
we are talking under $30k. Even I may be
able to afford that! And 200 miles may
be enough to remove range anxiety for most of us.
And, with all the auto companies starting to agree on putting
the battery at the bottom, space for passengers and for the Costco runs appears
to be in the offing.
Now, 200 miles is no 350 or 400 miles (typical gasoline car
range). Nor is the price comparable to
gas cars (I suspect that a gas equivalent of Bolt is probably a $20k car), and
tax incentives are probably not to be depended on in the long run, but these
$35k/200 mile EVs are going to be a game changer.
And more automakers are promising to go after the 200-mile
target. There is a feeling that this is
the sweet spot for the next push for electrification. With falling Li-ion prices, these cars are going
to get cheaper year after year. I do
think leasing is probably a better idea considering the rapid pace of changes,
not just in batteries, but also in the level of sophistication in the cars.
Granted that there is probably little economic growth in
going EV (I suppose you are substituting from one production type to the other.
And some of the battery cost reduction is coming from automation), but you have
to admit that from a pure technological standpoint it will be good to have something
new for a change on the roads after a century of the same kind of drivetrain.
Combine the EV revolution with ubiquitous connectivity and self-driving
technology, we are going to have a LOT of time on our hands to think about
doing something of economic value in the silent cone that is our battery-powered
Uber. And nothing like boredom to invent
something new to keep ourselves from getting bored. After all, isn’t necessity the mother of all
inventions? Hopefully what we invent
will be of economic value so that we can prove Robert Gordon wrong.
Venkat
